On My Radar - Hearts and Parades
February 14, 2025
By Steve Blumenthal
“Who doesn’t love a parade?”
– Jason Kelce, Former Eagles Center
The CMG staff is off today. Many are in the city for the championship parade. More than a million people lined the streets.
Source: CBS News
As promised last week, there’s no OMR global macroeconomic content today. The parade kicked off at 11 AM from Lincoln Financial Field (home of the Eagles), winded its way up Broad Street, took a left at City Hall, and then headed straight up the Benjamin Franklin Parkway to the podium next to the iconic Rocky statue at the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art.
“Man, I love this sport, the people that play it, and the fans that enjoy it,” Jason Kelce posted this week. That passion is contagious. We’re all riding a high—a feeling I hope you’ve experienced at some point. Because sports are so much more than throwing, kicking, or hitting a ball. They’re about the journey, the struggle, the perseverance. About pushing limits, working hard, and learning.
Most of all, they bring people together. Friends, rivals, even strangers—united by a shared passion. I still owe my Kansas City Chiefs friend, Dave, a Philly cheesesteak to settle our 2023 Super Bowl bet. Get to Philly soon, Dave! The banter, the camaraderie, the fun—it’s all part of what makes sports special.
Some fun facts from this year’s Super Bowl:
The average price of a ticket? $8,076.
A 30-second commercial? $7 million.
This year’s game was the most-watched TV broadcast in history, with 127.7 million viewers, surpassing last year’s record of 123.7 million.
Super Bowl Sunday was a tough day for chickens—an estimated 1.47 billion wings were consumed, according to the National Chicken Council.
The oldest players, Travis Kelce and James Winchester (both 35), play for Kansas City. Thirteen players are 30 or older, while 90 are in their 20s (the youngest are just 21). The average age of all players is 26.2.
Super Bowl LX (60) will take place at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. Current betting odds for next season: Eagles +650, Ravens +700, Bills and Chiefs +750, Lions +850 (via The New York Times).
Staying true to today’s sports theme, I’m sharing a story about Jalen Hurts and his journey of overcoming adversity. The Daily Coach says, “We may not be suiting up on Sundays, but in our own ways, we are all competing for the Super Bowl of life—pushing toward our unique opportunities to live, lead, love, and serve at our highest calling.”
Grab your coffee and settle into your favorite chair. Then, grab some fine wine and celebrate the day with the people in your life you hold dear. Happy Valentine’s Day!
On My Radar:
See Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion purposes only
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The Best is Yet to Come
On Sunday, Jalen Hurts led the Philadelphia Eagles to a dominant 40-20 victory over the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, also taking home MVP honors. This wasn’t just another win—it was the culmination of a journey filled with trials, setbacks, and relentless perseverance.
Seven years ago, Hurts was benched at halftime of the College Football National Championship while playing for Alabama, replaced by rising star Tua Tagovailoa. Five years ago, he watched as four quarterbacks were drafted ahead of him. Two years ago, he walked off the field after losing the Super Bowl to Kansas City.
And now? He’s a champion—forever ingrained in history.
Author Brad Stulberg recently reflected on Hurts’ journey, writing on X:
"Resilience is not about getting knocked down; it's about getting up. People think progress is linear, but it's not. It's why you've got to love your craft and you've got to love the people you do it with."
For Hurts, that love extends beyond football. He understands the importance of surrounding himself with the right people—on and off the field. Early in his NFL career, he built a management team composed entirely of women. He didn’t set out to make a statement; he simply sought the best people for the job.
"It’s something that happened organically. I was seeking out the best, and that’s how it happened. I have a team of straight hustlers ... They get things done. And that’s how I am on the field and off the field," Hurts told Sports Illustrated in 2022.
Following the Super Bowl, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni summed it up best:
"You cannot be great without the greatness of others."
The Leadership Mindset: Turning Losses into Lessons
This isn’t just a story about a quarterback winning a championship. It’s about life testing a leader over and over again—and that leader continuing to rise, inspire, and compete when it would have been easy to give up.
Leadership and life guarantee challenges. But setbacks aren’t failures if we embrace them as opportunities for growth.
Hurts’ story is one of relentless pursuit—of excellence, of continuous learning, and of building relationships that elevate others. He has embraced wisdom from those who came before him, drawing inspiration and guidance to help his team evolve and be ready for the moment.
And in doing so, he has shaped a powerful vision—one rooted in daily discipline, an unshakable mindset, and an unwavering commitment to excellence. Over the years, Hurts has been heard reciting these quotes, embedding them into his leadership philosophy:
“Rent is due every day.” — J.J. Watt
“Growing every day, attacking every day, trying to get better every day.” — Jalen Hurts
“Ten percent of life is what happens to you. Ninety percent is how you respond.” — Charles Swindoll
“I had a purpose before everyone had an opinion.” — Jalen Hurts
“We have a standard for ourselves, and it only rises.”
“You either win or you learn.” — Nelson Mandela
“Keep the main thing, the main thing.”
“I ain’t hungry. I’m starving for this.”
Competing for the Super Bowl of Life
We may not be suiting up on Sundays, but in our own ways, we are all competing for the Super Bowl of life—pushing toward our unique opportunities to live, lead, love and serve at our highest calling and levels.
What championship are you chasing? Who is on your team? How do you transform obstacles into fuel for growth?
Jalen Hurts’ journey reminds us that resilience and grit aren’t about avoiding adversity—they’re about embracing it, learning from it, and using it to propel ourselves forward. The standard isn’t static. It only rises.
For those who are truly committed to their craft and their people—the best is always yet to come.
Trade Signals: Update – February 12, 2025
Market Commentary
CPI data came in at 3%. PPI was reported at 8:30 AM ET this morning (Thursday, January 13). January PPI came in hot, rising .4% month-over-month, and December PPI was revised up to .5% from .2%. This brings year-over-year gain to 3.5%. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Inflation is picking up again, as are forward expectations for future inflation.
This is showing up in bond yields (moving higher again). It is primarily red (down arrows) in the bond market signals, which signal higher interest rates.
Two important signals this week:
1) The first is the Japanese Yen vs the Dollar. The Weekly MACD trend signal just signaled a rising Yen up trend, which is negative for global liquidity. Massive leverage exists in the Yen carry trade (i.e., money was borrowed at nearly 0% and invested in other markets, like U.S. stocks and bonds). Japan is facing an inflation problem and is in a bit of a trap. A weak Yen means they pay much more for Oil to which their economy is heavily dependent. They have been trying to increase their bond yields, which is bullish for the Yen and helps Japan fight off inflation. The potential unwinding of the leveraged Yen carry trade is a serious risk. Few are talking about it. Put it on your radar. The red arrow bottom right signals a rising Yen vs the Dollar.
Source: StockCharts.com, CMG Investment Research
2) The “canary in the coal mine” for the U.S. economy and U.S. equity markets in general is the High-yield bond market. I watch two high-yield bond market indicators. The first is highlighted in the “Fixed Income Trade Indicators” section below, which follows a weekly MACD trend signal that evaluates price movement. The second is shown in the next chart, which uses a 36-day moving average and an advance/decline moving average to determine the overall trend. Both indicators just signaled sell. NOTE: the signals may be frequent and sometimes false. Nothing in this business is perfect. But both signals are pretty good. The investor’s job is to avoid the really big mistakes. Both of these indicators help me evaluate potential turning points.
Trade Signals is Organized in the Following Sections:
Market Commentary
Trade Signals – Dashboard of Indicators
Market Valuations and Subsequent 10-year Returns
Supporting Charts with Explanations
Technicals, Fundamentals, Macroeconomics, and Investor Behavior
Trade Signals is designed for traders and investors seeking a better understanding of technical trends in various markets. Click on the link below to subscribe or login. The letter is free for CMG clients; reply to this email or contact your CMG rep.
TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Personal Note: Happy Valentine’s Day
“To laugh often and much: To win the respect of intelligent people and the affection of children, to earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends; to appreciate beauty, to find the best in others, to leave the world a bit better whether by a healthy child, a garden patch, or a redeemed social condition; to know even one life has breathed easier because you lived. This is to have succeeded.”
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
To my beautiful wife, Susan, I breathe easier because of you!
Reach out to an old teacher and coach and tell them they have succeeded.
Happy Valentine’s Day! All the best to you and your loved ones.
It’s been a fun day here in Philly. Full heart, great parade. Way to go, BIRDS!
Source: CBS News
Enjoy your weekend!
With kind regards,
Steve
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Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
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Forbes Book – On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles. Stephen Blumenthal gives investors a game plan and the advice they need to develop a risk-minded and opportunity-based investment approach. It is about how to grow and defend your wealth. You can learn more here.
Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management.
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